How to: Deal With Uncertainty

Managers often have to deal with ambiguity and solve complex problems with no clear solution or precedent. You need to learn to make decisions in the face of uncertainty, within a tight timeframe, and sometimes without all the information you’d like.

What does this look like?

Managers who know how to deal with uncertainty:

quickly adapt to change
decide and act even if they don’t have all the information they’d like
are calm when there’s no resolution
know when to move on, even if things are not resolved
are comfortable with risk and uncertainty.

How can I do this?

1. Take small, incremental steps

When it’s unclear how to solve a problem, there’s a risk you’ll make mistakes. This is to be expected. Take small steps as soon as you can. Expect some resistance and know that you may not get it right first time.
Make some small decisions, get instant feedback, correct the course, gather more data. Keep moving forward with more small decisions until the bigger problem is under control.
Have realistic expectations. It may take two or three attempts to solve a problem before you really understand its underlying dynamics.

2. Balance thinking and action

Aim for workable solutions rather than perfect ones. A perfect solution might protect you from failure and criticism but it probably doesn’t exist. If it does, be realistic about the time and resources it would take.
Become comfortable with taking risks. If you like to be right all the time and to have all the information you need before making a decision, this could immobilise you. Aim for a reasonable balance between thinking something through and taking action.
Challenge yourself to make some small decisions with little or no data. Trust your training, knowledge and intuition.

3. Define and understand the problem

Define the problem as soon as possible. Keep asking questions to find out what the underlying causes are. Often the root of a problem is hidden behind other issues. Ask ‘why’ until you arrive at the true source of the problem. The better you understand the problem, the easier it will be to solve.

4. Visualise the problem

It can help to visualise problems and processes with mindmaps, diagrams or flowcharts. Show how causes of a problem group together. Identify key problem areas in a process.

5. Be philosophical about failure and criticism

Reframe failure and criticism by reminding yourself that anything worth doing, like learning a new skill or solving a persistent problem, usually takes effort and multiple attempts. If a problem was easy to solve, it would have been solved by now.
Embrace mistakes as an opportunity to learn. When you make a mistake, get feedback as soon as possible, and identify what you need to improve.
If you don’t know how to solve a problem, others probably don’t know how to either. If that’s the case, then you can ignore their criticism.
Keep things in perspective. Think about what will happen if something doesn’t work. Although the implications might be significant sometimes, at other times they won’t be.

6. Manage your stress

If the complexity and ambiguity of a problem is causing you stress, try writing down what you’re anxious about. Is it that you don’t know what to do? You don’t want to make a mistake? You lack the confidence to act? Identifying the cause of your anxiety can help to alleviate it. If you’re under significant stress, take a break and do something different. Come back to the problem when you feel calmer.

7. Redefine progress

When situations are ambiguous and uncertain, it may not be possible to solve problems quickly. Sometimes you need to move on without resolution. This doesn’t mean you haven’t made some progress. You’ll likely have a better understanding of the problem and what will and won’t work in addressing it.

8. Step outside your comfort zone

You can get better at dealing with uncertainty by regularly putting yourself in new and challenging situations. Try learning new things. Go to places you haven’t been before. Consider saying ‘yes’ when you’d normally say ‘no.’